Written: 29 May 2026
By: Josh Perez, Senior Analyst and Cofounder
This article draws on a qualitative investigation using field testimonies, humanitarian reporting, and open‑source data.
With the recent continued violence and fighting in southern Lebanon, many are asking whether the ceasefire is really a ceasefire at all. Israel has continued striking what it says are Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and near Beirut, with recent strikes reported in Tyre, one of the country’s largest cities. The Israeli forces also ordered residents north of the Zahrani River, about 40km (25 miles) from the Israeli border, to evacuate, saying it would act “with extreme force.” This region has been described as part of Israel’s expanded “yellow line” or buffer zone.
To date, there have been almost 1,000 casualties in the ongoing fighting. Independent investigations since April have cited 975 casualties, of which 48 are children, 43 women, and 26 medical personnel or first responders. Human Rights Watch reported in April that more than 300 people were killed in a single day of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, and Lebanese health authorities have reported thousands of deaths since the conflict escalated, though the figures do not always distinguish between civilians and combatants. More than 1 million people have been displaced, and the lack of housing and facilities to support them is causing a major humanitarian crisis.
The question now is whether the ongoing ceasefire is productive, and what the Lebanese government and the international community are doing to address the loss of civilian life and the humanitarian crisis in the country. The Lebanese government has been heavily constrained in negotiations, with limited leverage and continuing to recover from years of political and economic collapse. Public confidence in a durable resolution remains weak amid the continuing talks involving Hezbollah and Israel.
Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, has rejected calls for disarmament, saying the group will not surrender its weapons while Israel remains active in Lebanese territory. Israel, on the other hand, has defended its actions as necessary for its security and for the destruction of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has also made threatening statements in public comments and media appearances about retaliatory destruction in Lebanon. With rhetoric like this, it is hard to see where peace or progress can be achieved, or how civilians will be protected.
Multiple religious groups live in Lebanon, including Christians, Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims, and Druze. In southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut, many Shia communities have historically viewed Hezbollah as the only force capable of defending them, especially because Hezbollah is better armed and funded than the Lebanese state. This complicates efforts to distinguish legitimate targets, since Hezbollah is widely treated by Israel, the United States, and others as a militant organization that operates within civilian areas.
Christians are also drawing their own divisions in resistance, as they see Hezbollah as aggressors but the conflict with Israel has not meant the IDF are saviors or just in their actions. Recent strikes on non-Hezbollah targets and civilians, including the March 9 killing of Father Pierre al-Rahi, a Maronite Catholic priest who was struck by Israeli tank fire while helping wounded parishioners in the village of Qlayaa, have left many angered and searching for answers that no side can provide. The reality is that the majority of Lebanese people, especially in the more northern regions, see this war as an unfortunate reality of life in Lebanon. Many, especially the youth, see this war as pointless and are looking to embrace the diversity and culture of Lebanon itself, going about their lives and continuing to press on with their own unique brand of solidarity of resistance through peace and acceptance.
The international community has remained largely limited to condemnation and humanitarian aid, which has been difficult to deliver because of damaged infrastructure and insecurity. In Nabatiyeh and other parts of southern Lebanon, aid workers and health personnel have faced serious risks, and attacks on healthcare facilities have been documented during the escalation. UNHCR and other international organizations have called for civilian protection and sustained support.
The reality is that the fighting has deep moral, cultural, and spiritual consequences, but Lebanon is not a state party to the International Criminal Court or the Rome Statute therefore does not automatically have jurisdiction there. Some reports have also described damage to civilian and religious sites, which has deepened resentment and moral concern over the conflict. Human security above all is not being treated as the priority it should be. Both sides must have leadership that enforces strict respect for the human, cultural, and spiritual rights of those involved in the conflict. There are no winners in constant disrespect and destruction.
Lebanon has long been a country where coexistence has been viewed as essential to political and social life, and before the recent escalation the country had real promise for growth and prosperity. History has proven that war and aggression do not bring prosperity for the aggressor and bring years of misery and insecurity to nations that are defeated or destabilized.
Lebanon sits 150th with a score of 31.7 on our Moral Disorder Index, with strong family stability: low divorce, marriage honored, children born within families. This war is in danger of disrupting that and driving the score down. The effects of disorder on the family are one of the main indicators we see in moral destruction and destabilization of nations. UnseenFrontTM will continue to track these indicators as predictors and as analysis of the ongoing war.