Global Conflict Index
BAROMETER
CONFLICT EXPOSURE
850 million people in conflict-affected areas
520M children (1 in 5) in conflict zones
THIS WEEK’S MAJOR UPDATES
- Iran threatened a new offensive and the IRGC said it attacked two US bases in Jordan. The threat pushed a contained confrontation toward wider regional war.
- Israeli strikes continued in Gaza while mediators said attacks were undermining negotiations. Civilians still lack safe shelter, food, water, and reliable medical access.
- Sudan's war spread through Kordofan and Blue Nile, and about 200,000 people were newly displaced by fighting and floods. Drone strikes also threatened civilians and aid operations.
- Russia intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, while a strike near Kyiv triggered a deadly ammunition-depot blast. Ukraine's retaliatory drone attacks kept civilians in Russia at risk.
- Myanmar's military intensified air attacks and abuses while staging an election, and Rohingya civilians faced worsening misery. The junta used the vote to claim legitimacy while attacking the people it claims to govern.
- Houthi attacks killed port workers and ship crew in the Red Sea and forced Mocha port to halt operations. The war now threatens Yemen's food routes and international shipping at the same time.
LIKELY NEXT FLASHPOINTS
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1. South Sudan Full-Scale Famine — 4 Counties IPC Phase 5 99%
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2. Gaza — 100% Territorial Control Directive 98%
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3. Sudan Drone War Escalation + Hormuz Medical Supply Crisis 98%
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4. Gaza / Israel-Hamas Renewed Offensive 98%Active urban warfare; Israeli military offensive; humanitarian catastrophe
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5. Sudan — SAF vs. RSF Escalation 98%Active civil war; drone strikes on civilian markets; ethnic cleansing; Egypt intervention
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6. Yemen / Red Sea — Houthi Escalation 98%Red Sea shipping attacks; Iran proxy escalation; Gulf state infrastructure strikes
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7. Gaza Full Military Offensive — Ceasefire Collapse 95%
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8. South Sudan — Return to Full Civil War 95%Active renewed civil war; ethnic conflict; airstrikes on civilian areas; atrocity risks
The Moral Ledger
What these conflicts are, who is responsible, and what the people living inside them are actually facing.
The major powers are concentrating influence through force and access rather than through law. The United States and Iran use missiles, sanctions, bases, and shipping routes to set the cost of compliance. Russia uses long-range strikes and nuclear risk to shape the choices of Ukraine and Europe. Israel uses territorial control and military pressure while negotiations continue. China uses patrols and economic leverage to make disputed waters function as if its claim were already accepted. Smaller states and civilians absorb the danger created by these contests.
The accountability system also applies different standards to different actors. It condemns armed groups when they threaten shipping or partner governments, but it tolerates state violations when enforcement would threaten a strategic relationship. It funds humanitarian relief after attacks while leaving the routes, crossings, and permits under the control of those who caused the need. It calls for ceasefires without imposing costs for breaking them. This is not impartial protection; it is managed exposure for people who have no seat in the negotiations.
The moral rule operating in August is simple: powerful actors may use violence if they can frame it as security, sovereignty, or retaliation, while civilians receive aid only after they survive the violence. Sudanese families face displacement and blocked relief as the RSF and SAF expand their war. Palestinians remain trapped under attack as Israel and Hamas bargain over political control. Ukrainians and Russians face reciprocal strikes while diplomacy stalls. South Sudanese children face hunger because armed leaders treat access to food as leverage.
The month’s ledger therefore shows a system that manages escalation instead of ending it. It moves ships around danger, writes monitoring plans, and issues statements after civilians are killed. Those actions matter, but they leave the power to start the next attack with the same actors who started the last one. The people who pay are not the governments that sign the communiques; they are the families who lose homes, food, movement, and the chance to hold anyone accountable.
Russia is using missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure to break Ukraine's resistance. Ukraine is striking targets inside Russia in response, and Russian civilians are now also being killed. Governments on both sides call the attacks military necessity while civilians bear the direct cost.
Civilian cost
Ukrainian families sleep through air-raid alerts and lose homes, power, and relatives. Russian border communities face Ukrainian drones and the danger of secondary explosions. People cannot move freely without weighing roads, trains, and neighborhoods against attack risk. Hospitals and emergency crews must work through repeated strikes and damaged infrastructure. The UN, OSCE, and national courts can investigate, but the governments directing the attacks decide whether evidence changes conduct.
The RSF and the SAF are fighting for power by attacking communities and cutting off the supplies that keep civilians alive. Their campaigns punish people who cannot leave the battlefield and deepen ethnic and political violence. Sudanese civilians bear the cost while foreign governments continue to arm and protect their preferred side.
Civilian cost
Families flee with little food, water, or medicine as front lines move through towns and villages. Floods and fighting block roads that aid groups need to reach people. People cannot safely choose between staying, fleeing, or seeking medical care because every route can carry attack or detention. Aid agencies operate under threat and often cannot reach besieged areas. The UN and ICC can document crimes, but the belligerents and their foreign backers still control access and enforcement.
Israel is using military force against a trapped civilian population while it negotiates the terms of a political settlement. Hamas still holds power over armed groups and has not produced a safe civilian exit from the war. Palestinian civilians bear the cost of both armed control and Israeli attack.
Civilian cost
Families in Gaza cannot reliably find a safe place to sleep. Israeli strikes destroy homes, schools, and medical sites while access to food, water, and medicine remains restricted. People cannot leave the territory or choose the armed actors who claim to represent them. Aid agencies try to deliver relief, but Israel controls many crossings and Hamas controls access in areas it holds. Courts and UN bodies can document violations, but they cannot protect civilians from the next strike.
The United States is using sanctions, force, and control of energy routes to compel Iran. Iran is using missiles, threats against shipping, and attacks on US bases to compel the United States and punish nearby states. Civilians across Iran, Jordan, the Gulf, and the shipping lanes bear the risk of a war neither government has ended.
Civilian cost
People in Iran live under the threat of renewed strikes and a collapsing economy. People in Jordan and the Gulf face attacks on bases near their homes and the risk that retaliation will hit civilian infrastructure. Seafarers cannot treat the main Gulf route as safe. Hospitals and importers pay more when fuel and shipping routes become weapons. Negotiations exist, but the United States and Iran control access to them and neither offers civilians a way to veto the next escalation.
Israel is using military occupation and airstrikes to force Lebanon and Hezbollah to accept its security terms. Hezbollah is keeping an armed force outside state control and drawing Lebanese communities into a wider war. Lebanese civilians bear the cost of both choices.
Civilian cost
Families in south Lebanon face renewed strikes, unexploded ordnance, and the loss of homes and farmland. People cannot safely return while Israel holds positions and Hezbollah retains weapons. Hospitals and local authorities must respond with limited resources after years of collapse. Aid groups need permission and security guarantees from actors who are also fighting. UNIFIL and negotiators can monitor and mediate, but they cannot compel either side to stop.
Myanmar's military is bombing and abusing civilians while staging an election to claim authority. Armed resistance groups fight the junta, but civilians trapped between them have no safe political choice. Rohingya people face persecution, displacement, and deprivation because of their identity.
Civilian cost
Families hide from airstrikes and move whenever front lines reach their towns. Rohingya people face restricted movement, hunger, and dangerous attempts to cross borders. Children lose school and medical care as transport and communications fail. Aid groups cannot reach many communities without permission from armed authorities. The UN and foreign governments can report abuses and impose sanctions, but the junta controls access and continues the attacks.
JNIM and ISGS control 40-60% of Burkina Faso's territory and carry out civilian massacres on a weekly basis. Western forces have been expelled from the region, and Wagner/Africa Corps mercenaries now operate in their place with no public accountability. State authority has collapsed across vast areas of the north, leaving no government presence to answer to.
Civilian cost
A villager in northern Burkina Faso lives in territory that changes hands between jihadist groups and a state whose presence has effectively disappeared, with a massacre occurring somewhere in the country roughly every week. More than 2 million people have been displaced in Burkina Faso alone, with nowhere safe to go since the same groups or their rivals often control the surrounding region too. Western forces that once had some monitoring presence have been expelled, and Wagner/Africa Corps mercenaries who replaced them operate without independent oversight or public reporting. There are no international observers in these areas to document what happens to civilians, so most killings go unrecorded outside local testimony. A family here has no functioning court, no peacekeeping force, and no media presence to appeal to if they are attacked.
The UN has documented that gang rape has been used as a deliberate instrument of the conflict, not incidental violence. A ceasefire between the DRC and M23 was signed April 24, 2026, under the Washington Accords, but M23 withdrawals are only partial and implementation is slow. 6.4 million people remain displaced while this plays out.
Civilian cost
A woman in eastern DRC lives in an area where the UN has documented rape used deliberately as a weapon, which means the threat is not random violence but a calculated tactic by armed groups. The April 2026 ceasefire and Washington Accords exist on paper, but M23 has only partially withdrawn, so people displaced by the fighting cannot be certain it is safe to return home. 6.4 million people remain displaced and 26.5 million face food insecurity, meaning hunger is a mass-scale condition, not an exception. Slow implementation of the peace agreement means the protections it promises have not yet reached most of the people the conflict has displaced. There is no functioning mechanism holding perpetrators of the documented sexual violence accountable while the ceasefire is still being implemented.
The Taliban, which controls all of Afghanistan's territory, has banned girls from education entirely and erased women from public life by rule. Opium production funds the government that imposes these bans. No international accountability mechanism is functioning to challenge either practice.
Civilian cost
A girl in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan cannot attend school past a certain age by government decree, a restriction that applies everywhere because the Taliban controls all Afghan territory. A woman cannot appear in most public spaces or hold most jobs under rules the government enforces directly. 23 million people face food insecurity while the government that rules them funds itself substantially through the opium trade rather than addressing hunger. There is no international court, sanctions regime, or enforcement body currently changing either the education ban or the erasure of women from public life. Afghan women and girls have no domestic legal recourse against these rules and no external body forcing a change.
The Houthis are attacking ships and port communities to pressure Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. The Yemeni government and foreign militaries answer with force while civilians remain trapped between competing campaigns. Yemeni families and seafarers bear the cost of a war fought through trade routes.
Civilian cost
People in Yemen lose access to food, fuel, jobs, and medical supplies when ports close. Families near Mocha face strikes, displacement, and the loss of local markets. Sailors cannot choose a safe route when armed groups control the sea lanes. Humanitarian agencies must pay more and wait longer to move basic goods. UN processes and naval patrols exist, but the Houthis and foreign powers control whether the routes open.
Ethiopian forces and armed regional groups are fighting for territory while civilians pay for the return of war. The government has not delivered justice for the last war and is again leaving communities exposed. Tigrayan, Amhara, and Oromo civilians bear the cost of competing armed projects.
Civilian cost
Families in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia face renewed displacement and restrictions on movement. People still lack full access to food, health care, and safe return after earlier fighting. Survivors of past abuses have little chance to see perpetrators prosecuted. Independent monitors and journalists cannot freely enter many conflict areas. The government and regional authorities control access to courts, aid, and evidence, so accountability remains out of reach.
Al-Shabaab controls more than 40% of Somali territory after 20 years of international intervention and governs that territory through taxation and punishment. US funding for the African Union force fighting Al-Shabaab is being cut next year according to a UN report. Two decades of international involvement have not dislodged the group's territorial control.
Civilian cost
A resident under Al-Shabaab control pays taxes to the group and faces its punishment system as the only functioning authority in daily life, because the group governs the territory it holds. Twenty years of international intervention have not changed this reality for more than 40% of the country. The African Union mission meant to counter Al-Shabaab is losing US funding next year, according to a UN report, which means the mission's already limited capacity is set to shrink further, not grow. Civilians in contested or Al-Shabaab-held areas have no alternative government service to turn to instead. The mission's funding cuts mean that whatever protection currently exists is scheduled to decrease at the same time Al-Shabaab's territorial hold remains intact.
South Sudan's political and military leaders are using armed power and blocked aid to hold their positions. Their choices leave civilians hungry and expose them to renewed war. Children, displaced families, and communities cut off from roads bear the cost.
Civilian cost
Families survive with less food as fighting blocks farms, markets, and relief routes. Children face severe malnutrition and preventable disease when clinics lack supplies. Displaced people cannot safely return home or cross front lines to find food. Aid workers risk attack and must negotiate access with armed authorities. UNMISS and other agencies can warn the world and deliver some relief, but the government and armed factions decide where aid can move.
ISWAP controls territory in the Lake Chad Basin and governs it through its own taxation and punishment system, functioning as a parallel state. More than 35,000 people have been killed since 2009, and Nigerian military operations have not eliminated ISWAP's ability to adapt and hold ground. Two million people remain displaced by this conflict.
Civilian cost
A resident of the Lake Chad Basin under ISWAP control pays taxes to the group and lives under its punishment system because no other governing authority operates there. More than 35,000 people have died since 2009, a toll that has not stopped despite ongoing Nigerian military operations against the group. Two million people remain displaced, unable to return to areas where ISWAP still holds ground or contests it. Nigerian military operations continue, but ISWAP has adapted to them rather than being eliminated, meaning the threat to civilians has persisted for over 15 years. There is no functioning civilian government service in ISWAP-controlled areas to replace what the group provides through coercion.
Pakistan conducted airstrikes inside Afghanistan in 2026 that killed civilians, while the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan escalates cross-border attacks. Two nuclear-armed neighbors are engaged in active cross-border strikes against each other's territory. Taliban-Pakistan relations have moved into open hostility as a result.
Civilian cost
A civilian near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border faces airstrikes from a neighboring nuclear-armed state, strikes that have already killed civilians in 2026. TTP cross-border attacks are escalating from the other direction, meaning civilians face risk from both a foreign military and an armed non-state group operating across the same border. Taliban-Pakistan relations have deteriorated into open hostility, removing whatever diplomatic channel might have limited strikes or de-escalated the border violence. There is no ceasefire or negotiated border security arrangement currently reducing the risk to people living in these border communities. Civilians here have no protection mechanism beyond hoping neither government escalates further, in a standoff between two nuclear-armed states with active hostilities.
An Islamic State-linked cell carried out twin bombings near French President Macron's hotel during his July 7-8, 2026 visit to Damascus, killing one person and injuring 36. This shows the Islamic State is resurging in the Syrian desert even as HTS governs the northwest. More than 7 million Syrian refugees remain displaced with no resolution in sight.
Civilian cost
A resident of Damascus lives in a city where an Islamic State-linked cell can still carry out bombings that kill and injure dozens, even during a high-profile foreign head-of-state visit meant to signal stability. More than 7 million Syrian refugees remain displaced and have not returned, which means the country's population has not recovered even as HTS consolidates governance in the northwest. The Islamic State's resurgence in the desert means territorial control by any single authority is not complete, leaving gaps where attacks like the Macron-visit bombings can originate. Refugees deciding whether to return have to weigh HTS's governance claims in the northwest against ongoing IS-linked violence elsewhere in the country. There is no unified security guarantee covering the whole country that would let the 7 million displaced make a safe decision to go home.
Haitian gangs are killing and kidnapping civilians to control territory and extract obedience. The Haitian state and foreign security force have not stopped them or rebuilt a functioning public authority. Haitians bear the cost of rule by armed groups and failed protection.
Civilian cost
Families in Port-au-Prince and nearby towns choose between staying behind barricades and fleeing with little money. Gangs control roads, markets, and access to basic services. Children face recruitment, sexual violence, and interrupted schooling. Hospitals and aid groups operate under threat and cannot reach every neighborhood. The UN and the multinational force can advise and patrol, but armed groups still decide who moves and who receives protection.
Peace talks between the Colombian government and the ELN collapsed, while FARC dissidents and the Gulf Clan continue fighting. Coca cultivation is at record levels, funding all three armed groups. Indigenous communities have been massacred as part of this ongoing violence.
Civilian cost
An Indigenous community in contested territory faces the risk of massacre from armed groups fighting over coca-growing land, a risk that has already materialized in documented killings. The collapse of peace talks with the ELN means there is no active negotiation reducing the number of armed groups operating in these areas. Coca cultivation at record levels means the economic incentive driving FARC dissidents, the ELN, and the Gulf Clan to fight over territory has grown, not shrunk. Communities in these zones have no government security presence strong enough to prevent the massacres that have already occurred. There is no functioning peace process currently in place to reduce the number of armed actors civilians must navigate to stay alive.